Author: danmolgan

Do you know that each one of us walking to and from work or school comes up with a few ideas that could turn us into millionaires or even billionaires?! Almost all of us had the experience of coming up with an idea for a product or a service and wondered why nobody else has ever come up with it, we then went on with our lives without taking any action just to see the same product or service is offered to the marketplace and making headlines not to mention immense sales!

But why does that happen to so many of us? The answer is simple: ideas without action are of no value whatsoever and coming up with brilliant ideas is not reserved for the elites among us, rather it is quite common among the masses. The truth of the matter is that there is no shortage of brilliant ideas in our world and we come up with or hear amazing ideas almost on a daily basis. However, what we have a shortage of is action taken to realize and materialize those very ideas.

Do you know the number one reason why most ideas never become a reality for all to see? You might be thinking of a myriad of possible reasons such as lack of financial resources, insufficient experience, low education or intelligence, or simply being in the wrong city or country. In light of how common such answers might be, it astonishes us to know that the number one reason behind the regrettable fact that most ideas never get materialized is that we simply never begin taking any action regarding the idea!

The reasons why so many of us find it hard to get started are multi fold. Firstly it stems from lack of self confidence, “if the idea was really good then I wouldn’t come up with it!” or so goes the inner monologue of the person who came up with the idea. Secondly, many of us lack the motivation to get started not because getting started demands a lot of time, energy, or other resources but rather we cannot get ourselves committed to go all the way through to finish what we started. Thirdly, most of us fail to tap in the power of social accountability, given that we fear other people’s judgment we feel uncomfortable with the social pressure that follows revealing our plans to those around us or simply fear that our ideas will get stolen and used by others, so what do we do as a result? We keep the idea to ourselves and eventually forget about it!

A swift look at the aforementioned reasons reveal that ultimately it is our fault that our ideas rarely get realized and the majority of obstacles are located within ourselves and caused by fear of failure and lack of motivation to see the idea through to its fruition. Now you might be wondering what lengthy therapy sessions one needs to undergo in order to overcome those inner barriers so that one becomes capable of realizing one’s ideas. The good news is that there is no need for any counseling, no need for a pep talk, no need for any esoteric means of changing your emotional state or belief system!

After having met the kinds of people who ended up transforming their ideas into actions and comparing them with those who did not, I found one common trait among all of them: those who get to see their ideas become realities are invariably the ones who immediately get started with their ideas and begin taking whatever action they can in order to make their ideas less of an idea and more of a plan. It is just getting started that proves difficult for most us while ironically it is the very act of getting started that will do all the magic!

Thus, next time you came up with any idea that could enhance the quality of your life as well as the lives of those around you, just remember that nothing will change unless you begin taking some kind of action right away. So, just get started!

#Danmolgan #Danielmolgan

A common sense approach to the science of probabilities tells us that the more we look for something the higher our chances of finding the thing that we are looking for. For instance, the law of large numbers in mathematics describes that the true probability of something occurring can only be tested if we try that thing a large number of times and the more we try something the more accurately the results represent the statistical probability of something happening.

It is commonly believed that if we keep looking for something without ever giving up then we will eventually find it, so according to this belief if you want the next high paying client just keep prospecting and presenting your product or service to more and more people until you find the best possible client who pays more than all the previous prospects. Also in this way, if you want to find the ideal mate then you need to keep going on dates with more and more potential mates until you find the person who is the best option. That is by no means limited to finding the right person in your business or personal life as the same approach can be used to find the right career, the right property, the right travel agency, and so on!

However, this common belief that drives many of us to keep searching and examining the next best thing lacks a substantial component: a break! When do we know when to stop and assume that the current option chosen is indeed the best option? After all, the grass is always greener on the other side. In the book Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions by Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths the authors propose an algorithmic solution backed up by the same mathematics that powers up some of the most advanced forms of artificial intelligence. Their solution is what mathematicians call optimal stopping.

According to the book, on the quest to finding the best option in the shortest amount of time we need to avoid choosing the first few options since the odds are the first few options are not the best but at the same time we also should avoid keep moving on to the next and the next hoping that every subsequent option has a higher chance of being superior since it simply does not! That is precisely why we need to stop at the optimal time, which is to say, not too early and not too late!

For instance in your search for the right apartment, deal, spouse, university, etc you are better off not taking the very first few options that become available since the chances are there are other superior options available to you should you just continue your search; however, if after examining a few options you found that superior candidate then you should stop optimally and settle for that superior option assuming that from then on you will encounter with options that will be inferior to your current selected option or if there are any real superior options they will take you again through many inferior options until you find it which substantially increases the cost of finding an option that might be just a tad better than the good option you would have had if you had but stopped optimally saving a tremendous amount of time and resources in the process.

Optimal stopping which is an algorithm extracted from the renowned secretary puzzle is simply about getting the best option at the optimal cost by refusing to accept the first option offered and continuing to look for superior options while avoiding the trap of an endless search. By stopping not too early and not too late we can insure the best decision at the most optimal cost, so for instance if there are 15 applicants available for a position it is best to give the job to the 9th or 10th applicant who fits the job description and call it a day.

Using the principle of optimal stopping, which is one of the algorithms that some of the best types of artificial intelligence use to make decisions can be of immense help for humans in making decisions all across the board that bring about the best results at an optimal cost of time and other resources required to examine further options. So when you look for the next best thing, wait a little and examine further options but don’t wait too long, stop optimally!

The 3rd decade of the 21st century has already begun with a big bang the type of which has been seen rarely in the history of the world and never before since the Declaration of Independence that formed the United States of America. A combination of social, economic, political, and public health crises that occur simultaneously is not something that we have often seen in the past and as thus global leadership is standing at a cross road with the need to make a clear decision in seemingly opposite directions.

This is a time that can make anyone a pessimist should they keep in mind only the events that are transpiring before their eyes; however, such a negative outlook stems from a myopic perspective that fails to take into consideration the short term nature of most crises and the transformation that follows them. A swift look at the horizon immediately brings under the spotlight numerous issues: a pandemic that could take months to end, an economic crisis that could take years to recover from, and a change in the world order that will take us a decade to fully grasp and understand.

Times of uncertainty have a way of bringing both the best and the worst in people and the recent protests following the death of George Floyd that kindled the fire of rage against racism is a clear example of that. Yet, irrespective of how ambivalent times can get, we can still discover meaning and purpose in the present moment and march steadily towards an ideal that can make our future brighter than the present.

We have seen but a glimpse of the drastic changes that are going to take place between 2020 and 2030 and the scope of that global shift is beyond what we can fully fathom with our incomplete information of the present moment but facing with such rapid transformations ought not to prove alarming. After all, change is the only constant and epochs such as the one that we are entering into could very well spread the message of hope as a brief look at history of not only the United States but also of all nations proves that going through such turbulent times only means coming out stronger on the other side ready to tackle the challenges of a new world with new ways of living.

Our lives will be quite different once we go through this decade and by then we have abandoned old ways of doing things just to replace them with new ones, however, having that long term perspective from today will make it far easier to avoid falling in the trap of negativity and doom’s day thinking that alas has crippled many among us. The decade ahead will not be easy but the foreseeable changes are all promising enough to make it worthwhile so instead of giving in to fear it is time to walk with courage and determination towards a 2030 that will in most cases be superior to what we had until before 2020. The decade of drastic changes is upon us so let’s be agents of change rather than victims of change and help others do the same!